Opposing Forces | Issue 71

tug of war
  • Glasgow rents record negative annual growth
  • Rent controls remain on Housing Bill agenda
  • Data suggests market at inflection point
  • Aberdeen posts strongest city growth

Scottish Monthly Rent Analysis Q3 2023-Q3 2024

Political upheaval with resonance to the property sector continued to weigh heavily on the minds of landlords in Q3 2024. Labour took power in Westminster with early focus on a Renters’ Rights Bill, which replaced the defunct Renters (Reform) Bill introduced under the Conservatives. Coupled with early rumours of changes to CGT in the forthcoming autumn budget, which would impact throughout the UK, concerns for rental supply were at the forefront of minds of industry representatives- a long standing and familiar issue in Scotland’s private rented sector (PRS).

Under new leadership, however, there have been signals that the Scottish administration understands there is a legitimate problem with proposed full market rent controls impacting on large scale investor sentiment; a long-mooted source of much needed new rental homes to expand market size. Some commentators describe Scotland as ‘no go’ region for investment, however verbal undertakings have now been given that amendments to the Housing (Scotland) Bill will ameliorate. It’s an anxious wait for detail for the many who understand the literal universal truth that expansion and cooling are commensurate.


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Scotland Average Stock Levels Q4 21 to Q3 24

Scotland

Average Rent (pcm) by Number of Bedrooms

Average Time To Let (TTL) by Number of Bedrooms

Citylets Rental Index - Scotland

YearQ1Q2Q3Q4
2008 100.0 101.6 102.8 100.2
2009 98.8 98.1 99.2 97.7
2010 98.9 101.4 100.6 99.8
2011 100.3 102.8 103.9 101.7
2012 102.9 104.2 105.0 104.0
2013 104.7 107.4 106.5 105.1
2014 108.4 112.1 114.1 113.5
2015 116.4 118.1 117.4 115.7
2016 118.9 120.5 120.2 114.6
2017 119.1 122.3 119.7 113.8
2018 120.9 123.9 122.3 119.5
2019 122.9 129.1 127.3 123.6
2020 125.7 130.9 134.1 128.1
2021 128.1 136.9 140.5 134.7
2022 138.9 150.4 152.1 150.7
2023 156.1 167.6 172.9 170.1
2024 174.1 187.1 185.3  

Market Composition

Households: Rented

Ann Leslie

Ann Leslie - Lar Housing Trust

“Edinburgh remains the most pressurised area and the removal of a required local connection for social housing is likely to exacerbate the problem. However, there are common themes across the country suggesting difficult times ahead. Pressure is mounting on the PRS, with various commentators highlighting that landlords are selling up in increasing numbers due to a perceived hostile political environment. This is, in turn, pushing more tenants towards the MMR sector and we have noticed a marked increase in enquiries in the last quarter. Demand from mature and PhD students, often with families, is also increasing and our waiting list would take a staggering 20 years to clear at current void rates.”

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